Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 17.626395 20.101347 22.763659 25.836160 29.279850 33.016021 37.371860
2025-02-09 13.883150 17.225502 21.095196 25.889249 31.650458 38.331512 46.645426
2025-02-16 11.694558 15.327263 19.737430 25.453758 32.631756 41.308319 52.548058
2025-02-23 10.257696 14.115176 18.998802 25.584756 34.176491 44.939842 59.370294
2025-03-02 9.218240 13.234085 18.506234 25.862552 35.776864 48.578786 66.245969
2025-03-09 8.291895 12.381065 17.932383 25.923903 37.018289 51.741684 72.596167
2025-03-16 7.416973 11.492632 17.202482 25.665332 37.741589 54.177982 78.021401
2025-03-23 6.818792 10.932167 16.863498 25.891314 39.098847 57.489015 84.744576
2025-03-30 6.459902 10.684801 16.939207 26.690846 41.281636 62.017433 93.343884
2025-04-06 5.879041 10.037807 16.360760 26.462030 41.921253 64.345166 98.874996
2025-04-13 5.119781 9.035569 15.156296 25.183330 40.889413 64.153145 100.680171
2025-04-20 4.860637 8.820479 15.155521 25.753637 42.677603 68.183023 108.877460
2025-04-27 4.623542 8.629712 15.190599 26.399905 44.648107 72.627057 117.984046
2025-05-04 4.249489 8.170345 14.751293 26.245011 45.335443 75.133452 124.240593
2025-05-11 3.877089 7.676895 14.211496 25.874056 45.629456 77.007808 129.553451
2025-05-18 3.623030 7.373477 13.970555 25.983048 46.703400 80.145902 136.974883
2025-05-25 3.420867 7.147099 13.844187 26.273000 48.081954 83.816669 145.382478
2025-06-01 3.201371 6.867174 13.599246 26.332419 49.059245 86.858878 152.873977
2025-06-08 2.956170 6.514128 13.193062 26.071106 49.455183 88.937525 158.838864
2025-06-15 2.797527 6.319069 13.064011 26.299996 50.713306 92.500175 167.401192
2025-06-22 2.723326 6.289930 13.245543 27.111054 53.044635 97.975233 179.397547
2025-06-29 2.529406 5.992724 12.887353 26.878936 53.465086 100.161690 185.834718
2025-07-06 2.233967 5.450030 12.005233 25.581963 51.847572 98.703233 185.875360